Bitcoin Could Open Path to $40,000—Long-Term Investors Warn

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) plunge / Gemini-generated image ©

A market analyst known as a Bitcoin (BTC) bull has urged long-term investors to respond coolly, saying that “strategy must take precedence over optimism at this time.”

According to cryptocurrency outlet Bitcoinist on March 3 (local time), market analyst Caleb Franzen emphasized on X that while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook during short-term weakness, investors should not ignore a breakdown in price structure. He presented a response framework based on bearish market patterns, moving average breakdowns, and clearly defined “invalidation levels.”

Franzen identified the collapse of the 2-day 200 moving average cloud near $97,000 in November 2025 as a key turning point. He explained that every major bear market in the past began with a breakdown below this level. On charts, Bitcoin has tended to trade above long-term moving averages during bull markets, while consistently remaining below that structure during bear markets.

Another key indicator is the 200-week moving average cloud. At the time, this range was formed between approximately $55,000 and $65,000. However, considering the 2022 case in which Bitcoin formed a bottom after falling about 30% further below the 200-week moving average, he also presented a scenario in which an additional 20–33% decline could open the door to a range of $37,000 to $44,000. This zone is also close to the long-term holder realized price of around $41,700.

Franzen cautioned, however, that past data does not guarantee future outcomes. Corrections of 20–30% have repeatedly occurred even during bull markets, and in bear markets, declines can continue for multiple quarters rather than just months. At the same time, he outlined conditions for turning constructive again: a reclaim of the 2-day 200 moving average cloud and a recovery above approximately $99,000, where the 55-week moving average is positioned.

Ultimately, his message can be summarized in one point: preparing for the possibility of multi-quarter declines is better than reacting emotionally. He also warned that confining oneself to a “single scenario,” such as waiting only for a retest of $40,000, is risky. While maintaining a long-term bullish outlook, he advised caution until structural signals definitively change.

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