Bitcoin to Repeat 2022 Bear Market? Experts Say It Will Drop to $50,000 Before Rebounding

▲ Bitcoin, stocks / ChatGPT-generated image

An analysis suggesting that Bitcoin’s (BTC) bearish cycles are becoming shorter compared to the past is drawing investor attention to whether the current price movement will recreate the brutal crash of 2022 or mark the beginning of a new rebound.

According to a March 8 report by cryptocurrency media outlet NewsBTC, continued selling pressure has pushed Bitcoin below $70,000, but technical analysis indicates a structural change in which the depth of bear markets is gradually becoming shallower. An examination of long-term data shows that Bitcoin’s downturn cycles tend to soften over time, suggesting that the bottom of the current cycle may not fall to the devastating levels seen previously. In a worst-case scenario of a 70% decline from the all-time high of $126,080 recorded in 2025, Bitcoin’s price could form around the $37,000 level.

Experts note that the current price pattern closely resembles the bull trap seen during the 2022 downturn. In September 2022, Bitcoin attempted a rebound from $18,000, appearing to recover, but after a false breakout near $21,000, it plunged again toward a new low. Similarly, in early 2026, the market surged to $74,000 following a bear trap in February when prices fell to $60,000, mirroring the 2022 script.

Historically, Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below the previous cycle’s peak, even during bear markets. In this cycle, the previous high stands at approximately $69,000 recorded in 2021, and whether Bitcoin can establish support above this level will be a key determinant of the future trend. If the 2022 downturn formula applies again, there is a risk of further correction toward the realized price, around $50,000.

Despite ongoing volatility in the crypto market, large whales are using the current downturn as an accumulation opportunity. Data from Santiment shows that major wallets are absorbing panic-driven retail sell-offs and accumulating Bitcoin from a long-term perspective. Open interest in the market is also stabilizing as excessive leverage is flushed out, which is viewed as a positive signal for strengthening downside support.

Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance in its attempt to reclaim $70,000, and the pace of institutional capital inflows is expected to determine the strength of any rebound. With liquidity sources such as the injection of $150 billion in tax refunds poised to energize the market, Bitcoin’s structural reset is being evaluated as a necessary bottoming process for a new upward cycle. Investors are advised to closely analyze macroeconomic changes and the movement of large-scale funds rather than focusing solely on short-term chart fluctuations as the market undergoes reassessment.

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