Is Now the Right Time to Start a Long-Term Investment in Bitcoin?

As of July 2025, Bitcoin is steadily holding above the $100,000 mark, once again drawing the attention of global investors. Following the April 2024 halving event, the reduced issuance rate has highlighted Bitcoin's scarcity, while the expansion of the ETF market—especially in the United States—has strengthened institutional trust in BTC. Against this backdrop, the strategy of long-term bitcoin investment is regaining momentum.

Global asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity are increasingly allocating capital to Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that BTC is no longer perceived merely as a speculative asset. Notably, ARK Invest's Cathie Wood has projected that Bitcoin could exceed $1 million in the long run, and expects it to reach at least $200,000 by the end of 2025. Her forecast is grounded in a combination of technological adoption curves and constrained supply models.

Currently, the market is navigating through three competing scenarios. The optimistic outlook anticipates that the synergy of the halving event, ETF growth, and institutional inflows could push BTC above $200,000 in the first half of 2025. Australia’s The Australian even stated, “Bitcoin is being redefined as a gold-like asset, and current corrections represent a buying opportunity.” A more moderate forecast expects a gradual upward trend, with BTC stabilizing between $120,000 and $160,000 over the next 12 to 18 months.

There are also bearish perspectives. Rising global regulatory risks, uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election, persistent interest rates, and geopolitical tensions could potentially drive BTC back below $80,000. Some experts warn that the current rally is overly reliant on ETF-driven demand and derivatives markets, which may pose structural risks.

Investors should not rely solely on optimism or historical returns. For long-term investment, it is generally advisable to maintain a Bitcoin allocation of 10% to 25% within a diversified portfolio. For those who find direct custody difficult, ETFs or custodial services offer viable alternatives—but associated fees and storage risks must be carefully assessed.

Meanwhile, entities like Japan’s Metaplanet and the U.S.-based Ego Death Capital have adopted BTC as a strategic reserve asset, amassing large holdings. These organizations view Bitcoin not just as a store of value but as a core asset for building future financial infrastructure. This signals a shift from short-term price speculation to seeing BTC as an alternative pillar to traditional financial systems.

In conclusion, the long-term investment potential of Bitcoin is undeniably compelling. However, realizing this value requires rational judgment of market cycles, regulatory developments, and global capital trends. Now is a time to move beyond 2025 bitcoin price forecast speculation and adopt a “network investment” mindset rooted in long-term utility and trust.

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